With a little more than two weeks before the welterweight title showdown between Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 in Montreal, the Vegas odds makers have the bout at -235 (Belal) vs +200 (Maddalena). The odds have shifted little in the past month, floating around the same for both fighters, but before you rush to draft kings to try your odds, here are some things to consider about this classic clash of styles match up.

 Styles make fights. There’s little doubt that a predominant factor in the odds of this bout is the classic style match up of “striker vs grappler.” Traditionally this clash of styles has predominantly favored the grappler, and with more of Belal Muhammad’s training taking place in Dagestan, training with the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, it’s easy to see why the scales are tipped in favor of Belal.

 Muhammad has utilized his grinding, wrestling heavy approach to wear down opponents, and amass a 10-fight win streak and earn the welterweight crown. A stylistic approach that has been recently augmented by his cross training with the Dagestani greats. However, the recent trips to Dagestan for Belal Muhammad have been just that, recent.  With the majority of Belal’s career training taking place with the Chicago fight team and Roufusport MMA. With only his last two fight camps having involved cross training with the Dagestanis, it’s hard to determine exactly how much of the Dagestani style has truly rubbed off on the Champion.

While the Muhammad has displayed dominate grappling and an ability to grind his opponents down with relentless pressure, examples in recent fights show his style is far from being an overwhelming force inside the octagon.

In his unanimous decision victory over Leon Edwards back in June 2024, despite Muhammad rag dolling Edwards to the mat, seemingly at will, Edwards managed to take Muhammad’s back four times during the fight. Including a reversal in round 3 that saw Edwards take his back and maintain the dominate position for nearly the entire round. In the last 30 seconds of the fight Edwards managed to reverse position and batter Muhammad with ground in pound, leaving blood running down the face of the new champion.

Polished Boxing. It’s no secret that Jack Della Maddalena has some of the best boxing in the UFC welterweight division, but what does this mean against a fighter like Muhammad who will be threatening and pressuring take downs the entire fight? It means that Maddalena’s key to defending the takedown will be to utilize foot work and distance to avoid wrestling exchanges all together.

In his fight with Leon Edwards, Belal was able to enter on takedowns with near impunity. While he was setting these shots up superbly, Edwards also facilitated the takedowns by overreaching with strikes on several occasions, spending prolonged periods of time remaining stationary in front of Belal, never being able to establish and maintain a far enough range to see the take downs coming. Little lateral movement and planting his feet in front of Belal was a pattern that Edwards established from the opening round of the fight.

Maddalena on the other hand has demonstrated a mastery of range control and ability to stay moving and mobile for the entire duration of a fight. Planting his feet only long enough to fire off a combination before circling out and reestablishing the fight within his range. Maddalena’s footwork could force Belal into prolonged striking exchanges in attempts to setup the takedown, placing the champion right into Maddalena’s wheelhouse.

Speaking of movement and footwork brings us to the next consideration of this bout. Belal’s own striking. While far from being a grappler only, and fulling embracing his craft as a Mixed Martial Artist, which includes Belal possessing solid and versatile striking skills. The striking and particularly the boxing skill gap between the two fighters cannot be understated.

In Maddalena’s 17 fight win streak, 12 of those victories have come by way of KO/TKO. The difference in the footwork and movement of both fighters is stark. Maddalena constantly moving, reestablishing range, jockeying for foot position, while attempting to exploit angles and holes in his opponent’s guard to land crisp, lengthy combinations is the norm. While Belal in contrast, in his fights with both Leon Edwards, and Gilbert Burns, stood relatively stationary for prolonged periods of time, and continuously switching stances in front of his opponents for seemingly no reason.

While Jack Della Maddalena is known for fighting out of both stances, it’s rare to see him do so without purpose. Changing stances immediately after a combination to cut to one side or the other, or stepping down into a south paw boxing combination after throwing the right kick from orthodox are just some of the ways Maddalena conceals the transition from one stance to another.

In contrast Belal, in multiple fights, has changed stances while standing at range with his opponent, with no effort to conceal the movement of his feet. This glaring pattern could prove fatal against Maddalena if he can catch the champion off balance with a quick counter during these stance switches.

While Edwards and Burns were unable to fully capitalize on Belal’s limited movement and more stationary striking posture, this is something that could land the champion in hot water against Maddalena. If the challenger can establish his range early in the fight, he will be well poised to counter even minuet over extensions and failed take down attempts by Muhammad.

Failed take down attempts, and transitioning from grappling exchanges back to striking at distance is the last consideration to discuss. These transitionary moments in a fight are something that Jack Della Maddalena has capitalized on in the past. Showing ability to exploit the flow of the fight from grappling back to striking range with quick counters and follow ups against Bassil Hafez, and in his TKO stoppage against Gilbert Burns.

Muhammad was caught clean with an elbow in the first round of his bout with Edwards, as Ewards forced himself out of the clinch with the strike, and immediately chased him with a follow up combination. Muhammad also caught leather in his fight against Gilbert Burns after failing to initiate the clinch in round 2.

While no one has yet to put away, or even rock the champion during these transitionary moments, this small chink in the champions armor must be accounted for when considering his opponents strengths going into the championship fight at UFC 315.

April 24, 2025